Math
Posted: Thu Jul 18, 2019 9:23 pm
Hello,
I would like to share with you some math. Specifically: probability.
What do you think the opposite of a "90% reduced chance" is? If you answered a 90% increase, congratulations: you flunked math.
A 90% reduction in the chance that something happens means that it is now 1/10th as likely to happen. The opposite of 1/10th is not 19/10ths, it's 10. The increase in the average time between occurrences of the something happening is 10 times as long. 10 is 1 plus 9, so it's an _increase_ of 900%. The opposite of a 90% reduction is a 900% increase.
It's pretty straightforward: write the percentage as a fraction and then flip the fraction upside down.
Let's try that again. A 95% reduction in the chance that something happens means that it is now 5/100ths or 1/20th as likely to happen. The opposite of 1/20th is 20. 20 is 1 plus 19, so it's an increase of 1900%. If something has a 95% reduced chance of happening, the average time between occurrences is 1900% more.
Take it the opposite direction: what's the opposite of a 100% increase? A 100% increase is 1 + 1 = 2. The opposite decrease is 1/2 or 50%. If the average time between something happening doubles, that is a _50%_ reduction in the chance of it happening per unit time.
Finally, a 100% reduction in the chance that something happens means there is now a 0 chance it will happen. 1-1=0. The opposite of zero is infinity. The time between occurrences is infinite.
Here endeth the lesson.
I would like to share with you some math. Specifically: probability.
What do you think the opposite of a "90% reduced chance" is? If you answered a 90% increase, congratulations: you flunked math.
A 90% reduction in the chance that something happens means that it is now 1/10th as likely to happen. The opposite of 1/10th is not 19/10ths, it's 10. The increase in the average time between occurrences of the something happening is 10 times as long. 10 is 1 plus 9, so it's an _increase_ of 900%. The opposite of a 90% reduction is a 900% increase.
It's pretty straightforward: write the percentage as a fraction and then flip the fraction upside down.
Let's try that again. A 95% reduction in the chance that something happens means that it is now 5/100ths or 1/20th as likely to happen. The opposite of 1/20th is 20. 20 is 1 plus 19, so it's an increase of 1900%. If something has a 95% reduced chance of happening, the average time between occurrences is 1900% more.
Take it the opposite direction: what's the opposite of a 100% increase? A 100% increase is 1 + 1 = 2. The opposite decrease is 1/2 or 50%. If the average time between something happening doubles, that is a _50%_ reduction in the chance of it happening per unit time.
Finally, a 100% reduction in the chance that something happens means there is now a 0 chance it will happen. 1-1=0. The opposite of zero is infinity. The time between occurrences is infinite.
Here endeth the lesson.
