Sterile rate

[Highroller]

I had another big clump of steriles this morning including 2 out of 2 on a mule cross. Sigh ANOTHER 1 in 400 chance that happened to me. Its getting harder and harder to believe the bad luck theory. I tend to believe there is something subtle borked in the code. I know you said you looked at it before Col but this clumping of steriles is caused by SOMETHING. Its happened to me too many times to count. I still say a deed to allow you to change a pet at level 1 ie non-trained from zero breeds to 1 breed for a reasonable fee would be a GREAT thing.

[+Colibri]

I still think it's bad luck. I have just created 1000 horses, and 55 of them were sterile, which is 5.5%, which agrees with the 5% theoretical chance.

I think i can add some logging to the system so that i will be able to see the number of breeds pets get as they are claimed from the breeder. But it's too much relying on pets already so i dont think i'd be making the settings easier. Will see what the log results from a few weeks show though.

[Highroller]

Well i claimed 2 more pets and 1 of them was sterile. The 5% theory is all shot to hell for me today. More like 35% today for me maybe worse.

[Highroller]

2 pets today. I gen 10 so doesn't count the other one was sterile.

[Highroller]

1 out of the next 4 are sterile which is a little better but still way over 5%

[Highroller]

Ok next 6 no steriles so not counting the 2 gen 10 ones that are naturally sterile, 2 out of 10 today. Which is a LOT better than yesterday but still some 20%.

[Highroller]

8 more with no steriles so 2 out of 18 . Still more than 10% today total with clumping. ie 2 out of first 3 were sterile. I had a horrible sterile rate yesterday and now seems to be retuning to a normal rate. I can live with the normal rate but when I get 4 out of 8 sterile in a batch its too bleeping many. Its the clumping in conjunction with the extremely high fail rate that is making pet breeding a dead issue. It seems (no numbers to verify it yet) that the rate is about right most of the time and then I get clumps of steriles WAY over the theorical rate. And then it goes back to something close to 5%. I sure haven't seen rates stay low enough to "make up" for the clumps. Since I routinely get the clumps when I am back breeding, they all but kill a breeding line ie when I have minimum numbers of a breeding line is when I get most of the clumps. Its happened too many times for me to believe its just "bad luck". Its happened I think the last 5 times I have back bred. Once on Cu's, 2 times on mules, once on snakes and once on ferrets. ie clumps not single steriles. A few steriles at key times like that GREATLY lowers your output in later generations since you have so many fewer to breed in the early gens. Oh make that 7, I got large numbers of steriles when back breeding hell hounds and ice hounds also.

[Highroller]

1 out of next 10 so 3 out of 28. Still more than 10%

[Hanarg]

Ok Im going to bet that you are doing this but I have to ask... Are you making sure that you are full and that the pets are fed before you breed them and are you wearing extra lore gear when you breed them?

[+Colibri]

Well i dont think the chance depends on them being fed. It's just that random thingie. And also, the female parent shouldn't smoke or drink during it's "breeding delay"

[Highroller]

Ok Im going to bet that you are doing this but I have to ask... Are you making sure that you are full and that the pets are fed before you breed them and are you wearing extra lore gear when you breed them?

I tried the feeding thing and extra lore gear and the using bless on the pets and various other legends. None made any difference.

Stopped doing an exact count Col but in rough numbers I am still running about 10%. Then again I am not doing as much back breeding. That's when I tend to get insane numbers of steriles. ie last 7 times I backbred a breed of pets.

[Highroller]

Well just as I thought the sterile rate might be averaging a little, I got another sterile. Also have failed EVERY time my Highroller character has tried to breed for 3 days straight ie he has zero claim tickets waiting unless they are some ancient one I didn't claim on purpose. Did you increase the fail rate AGAIN?

[Tael]

I tried the feeding thing and extra lore gear and the using bless on the pets and various other legends. None made any difference.

This won't help you any, but these legends and superstitions are fascinating examples of confirmation bias. The human brain simply does not like randomness, so we try even by irrational means to control the whirlwind.

The UO RNG has always been streaky as heck. You really notice it when a fail is expensive. I remember failing six times in a row on a tool house once, so I can imagine your frustration.

[Highroller]

I tried the feeding thing and extra lore gear and the using bless on the pets and various other legends. None made any difference.

This won't help you any, but these legends and superstitions are fascinating examples of confirmation bias. The human brain simply does not like randomness, so we try even by irrational means to control the whirlwind.

The UO RNG has always been streaky as heck. You really notice it when a fail is expensive. I remember failing six times in a row on a tool house once, so I can imagine your frustration.

6 times in a row on pets now is expected. Its when I get 12 or 18 in a row like I have with my Highroller Character ie EVERY cross he has tried for 3+ days has failed and my other characters aren't doing much better, that you gotta wonder just what the fail rate is now?

Ok update, I finally got a cross to not fail with Highroller on the 4th day, still a lot of fails in a row. Well on the bright side with no claim deeds to turn in you can't get additional sterile pets back...

[Highroller]

Well my sterile rate slowed down a bit but to make up for it I am getting endless fails. Took 5 days to get a successful cross out of my Harley character and I just ran dry of claim deeds to turn in again for my Highroller character so that means 3 days of all fails for him again...Now granted I have slacked off a bit on attempts to breed but not much, I expect I am still trying to cross 2 pairs of pets with each character twice a day at least on average. So to run out of claim tickets that's at least 12 failed crosses in a row maybe a couple more. Some days I get in 3 rounds of cross attempts. So has the chance of failing been made even more likely Col?